We are suspending coverage of BIDU due to a change in associate coverage. This is the last investor pitch on BIDU’s next move laid out in an easy to follow, 9-slide powerpoint presentation. The stock closed today at $242.05. This information is for historical purposes only and should only be used for informational purposes. Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Perspectec Inc. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any […]
Monthly Archives: May 2018
6 posts
In this piece, we examine Shopify’s current and future identifiable e-Commerce Platform market share versus Magento (Adobe), Oracle Commerce, Demandware (Salesforce), BigCommerce, Squarespace Commerce, IBM Websphere Commerce, Wix Stores, Weebly (Square), Shappify (Shopify App), Volusion, StackCommerce, Hybris, Amazon Webstore, Elastic Path, MadMobile Ecwid Plug-in (WordPress), 3D Cart, FoxyCart, GoDaddy Online Store, ePages, K-eCommerce and (Microsoft Dynamics & SAP). We also look at Shopify’s customers and the obstacles to achieving continuous market share growth in the future. Shopify’s e-Commerce Sales Growth was 400%+ vs. Competitors in Q1/18 Shopify sales have grown 68.3% Y/Y in Q1 2018 versus the U.S. e-Commerce market […]
Post Spotify’s (SPOT-NYSE) Q1/18 earnings report and Q2/18 guidance, we have updated our Spotify subscription valuation model. Our target price is based on a relative valuation versus Netflix, SiriusXM and Pandora. Our model has a multiple r-squared of 0.997 and p-values for both factors of under 0.09. We value Spotify at $104/share. The actual function calculates the market capitalization,which is based on 3x CLTV TTM + 44x TTM CLTV added. Our updated model now better accounts for a profitable but slower growing userbase at SiriusXM as well as tempering some of the quarterly volatility in TTM CLTV added for Spotify and Pandora. The volatility […]
With the recent launch of Spotify, we have examined SPOT’s peer group including Netflix, Sirius XM and Pandora. We found a strong relationship between the Customer LifeTime Value added (CLTV added TTM) and Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV TTM) and the dilutive market capitalization of these companies. Target Price Calculation Based on the accumulated and relative data of its online media competitors, we believe Pandora is a BUY. In the potential (probable) absence of no future operating profit, we believe Pandora can be valued using a similar valuation model as Spotify. Using Netflix, SiriusXM, Spotify and Pandora, there is a strong […]
Shopify’s (SHOP-NYSE) share price continues to fluctuate as questions about future gross margins, churn, and valuation continue. We take a unique approach to Shopify’s subscription valuation in order to account for its Merchant business that accounted for 36% of gross margin dollars (TTM). What Moves SHOP’s Share Price and how has it Traded? Source: Perspectec Shopify’s gross margin profile, subscription churn (based on our survey) and operating expense put Shopify as a very expensive stock relative to its peer group. Getting a Clean Shopify SaaS Valuation We believe Shopify’s valuation should be based on its relative SaaS valuation. We do not see a path to a […]
Based on the latest Alibaba unique visitor data for Tmall and Taobao, we have lowered our fiscal Q4 2018 estimate for online marketing service revenue from $3.97 billion to $3.82 billion. We now expect pageviews to be up 3.5% Y/Y in fiscal Q4 versus up 14% Y/Y last quarter. The end result is our total revenue forecast in fiscal Q4 decreasing from $9.56 billion to $9.41 billion. We still see the full year 2018 revenue ahead of guidance (beating it by 1.4%). Revenue growth we now see as being up 54.9% Y/Y versus up 56% in fiscal Q3/18. Our adjusted 2018 EPS moves up […]