We have updated our forecast to more accurately account for expected operating costs in 2018. Hiring at Elbit Systems has steadily increased by 2% to 3% a year over the last few years, much of which has been seen in higher sales and marketing costs. We have also added our marketing presentation of Elbit for our subscribers. However our prior estimates we believe likely punished Elbit too severely. We are increasing our non-GAAP EBIT margins from 9.7% to 10.1%. Source: Perspectec Source: Perspectec Source: Perspectec We have also attached an easy to understand powerpoint explaining our view. […]
Yearly Archives: 2018
48 posts
On Tuesday, January 9th, Salesforce (CRM) broke through its all-time high set back on November 21st. It has now comfortably past our target of $108 set back on December 19th. Given the recent run-up in the stock price and the equity markets in general, we now believe fiscal Q4 2018 results and Q1 2019 guidance beats are being fully accounted for in the stock price. This is based on CRM’s historical EV/EBITDA valuation, its CLTV/CGC relative valuation and CRM’s high r-squared with the NASDAQ Composite. We believe investors should stop accumulating shares of CRM above $108. We continue to monitor CRM’s competitive […]
We have updated our Netflix Q4 net subscriber additions to account for all original programming released up to December 30, 2017. Based on Google Trends historical search data of every Netflix Original relative to its most popular show, 13 Reasons Why, we now estimate that Netflix will add 8.1 million subscribers in Q4 2017 vs. management’s guidance of 6.3 million net subscriber additions. This will be the third straight quarter Netflix will beat its guidance, putting net subscriber additions for the end of 2017 at 23.6 million, up 24% from the end of Q4 2016. The following recaps the foundation of our proprietary multiple linear regression […]