SARIMAX Forecasting

The SARIMAX model incorporates and integrates recent trends, seasonality, historical sandbagging, carry forward or carry back amounts from the prior quarter or year ago comps, essentially turning an estimate into a science.

In this scenario we automatically detect McDonald’s ($MCD-NYSE) primary drivers based on iterating through various quarterly datasets and then using the combination of best identified drivers in a SARIMAX model to forecast financials.

While this can work for a number of line items in an income statement, at a practical level this works best in forecasting revenue.