Summary of Survey Results
According to a Perspectec survey of 1,000 online respondents in late July, Netflix’s has penetrated 28% of the Japanese market and 27% of the German market. In both countries the percentage of subscribers who have left Netflix over the past year is just over 50%. The most common reasons why subscribers left Netflix was due to price and a lack of content.
Why do Churn and Penetration Matter Now?
For those following Netflix (NFLX-NASDAQ), it is increasingly apparent that 2017 will be the most telling year in determining whether the company’s International strategy is headed for success or failure. Success can be defined as seeing penetration and churn in markets such as Germany and Japan grow at a path that generally follows Mexico in terms of market penetration and subscriber churn. Failure would see penetration and churn not materially improving over the next year. This will manifest itself in customer growth costs overtaking the lifetime value of customers being added. With Netflix being valued on a subscriber metrics basis, this will result in a lower EV/EBITDA multiple being applied and a lower share price.
For further details on this survey and what this means to the stock price, please visit us at perspectec.com
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We analyze select public technology / growth companies, taking our best guess as to the future direction of a stock price.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX-NASDAQ)
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