We have updated our financial expectations for Spotify’s Q2/18 quarter, after accounting for June promo activities and stream counts in Spotify’s major markets.
Our premium subscriber Q2/18 estimate increases from 82 million to 84.3 million versus guidance of 79 to 83 million. Our subscriber estimate accounts for:
– Stream counts per country
– New country launches
– Promo activity per country
– # of days per quarter
We have also conducted a survey on Spotify’s U.S. market penetration and churn. The results will be discussed in a follow-up Spotify report. Similar to Netflix, churn will be an increasing factor in premium subscriber additions moving forward.
The primary reason for increasing our Q2 estimate is from the higher than expected # of streams. Higher usage in general leads to faster growth in premium subscribers. Spotify launching in Israel, Romania, Vietnam and South Africa in the last few weeks of March we believe will contribute roughly 300,000 new premium subscribers in Q2 versus Q1 versus our prior estimates.
Further details on our Spotify assumptions, our investor pitch, financial model and recommendations are available to Perspectec subscribers.
Perspectec’s Q2/18, 2018 and 2019 Financial Estimates
Source: Perspectec
Spotify Streams by Country
Source: Perspectec
Spotify Inc. (SPOT-NASDAQ)
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