We have updated our view of Elbit Systems, accounting for the impact of IMI Systems and new announced orders on operating leverage and non-GAAP EPS. We hit on the key points that we believe will move the stock in 2018 based on how the stock has historically traded. Attached is an updated 13-page powerpoint presentation on the key issues that will affect Elbit’s adjusted EPS and valuation. All subscribers can access our full financial model. While our target is $130, but we see upside up to $134 based on 20x our 2019 non-GAAP EPS of $6.72. We believe upside is […]
Orders Estimating Sales
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We have updated our 19-slide Shopify Powerpoint Pitch in which we examine the major sticky points in Shopify’s product relative to peers, Shopify’s real TAM and market share, investor expectations, relative subscriber valuations, and other unique issues that are typically overlooked by brokers.
We have outlined overlooked issues on Spotify (SPOT-NYSE) in 20 easy to follow (or pitch) slides. These slides include: – Subscriber valuation graphs, correlations and tables – Tracking of Global top streams and their relationship with Premium Subscribers – How different plans, regions and promotions affect ARPU – Revenues for both the music and digital music industries – Financial forecasts on a number of metrics – Comparable metric comparison versus Pandora – Subscriber Comparable tables with Netflix, SiriusXM, Pandora and Spotify – Stock Recommendations
Good visibility on Recurring Revenue Growth Tracking Streams – We have analyzed billions of streams across Spotify’s major markets. Streamed tracks on Spotify were increasing at compound monthly growth rates between 1.5% in the U.S.to over 13% in Japan (a U.K. market monthly compound growth rate at 0.2% was due coming off a high base from Ed Sheeran streaming). Streams are what drive growth in Spotify’s two pipelines to premium subscriber growth (i.e. recurring monthly subscriber fees). Free and discounted trial users – Users typically convert from discounted and free trials to paid within a 36-month. Free and discounted trials […]
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT-NASDAQ) reported their third quarter 2017 results on Tuesday, November 14, 2017. In this piece we discuss how the timing of deals signed by Elbit impacted the quarter. We also provide a forecast for the upcoming quarter based partially on signed deal timing. Q3/17 Results Record gross margins helped make up for lower than expected revenue. Source: Perspectec Revenue was off a little – Elbit saw revenue come in about 2% below our estimates. Y/Y growth of about 3% was slightly below that of other defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin (5%) and Raytheon (4.5%). Contract falls off […]
Elbit Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ: ESLT) is set to announce their third quarter 2017 results on Tuesday, November 14, 2017. Q3/17 marked the 3rd consecutive quarter of increasing orders for Elbit, reaching record levels according to our estimates. The stock is up 4% since reporting a $300 million Command and Control Asia-Pacific order. This is off the back of a $240 million order from an African country for land and anti-ground solutions announced the day before. Years of overspending (as a percentage of revenue) in R&D is finally paying off for the company with increased spending on border security and land […]
The following is our initial stock call the overall business and share price of Elbit Systems (ESLT-NASDAQ). The purpose of this report, and the underlying research provided, is to better understand the future direction of ESLT relative to its peers and the NASDAQ composite. The main criteria that will determine the future share price, earnings per share and dividend per share is anticipating the next few quarters’ dollar revenue recognized, based off the order backlog numbers. Any unexpected changes in revenue recognized in a given quarter will impact the overall buy/sell valuation. This information is provided with the understanding that […]