We have updated our Netlfix Q3 net subscriber additions to account for end of month demand. Using Google Trends historical search data of every Netflix Original relative to its most popular show of all-time, 13 Reasons Why, we now estimate Netflix will add 5.15 million subscribers in Q3 2017 versus our previous estimate of 5.3 million subscribers. Prior to the T-Mobile announcement partnership announcement we had expected Q3 Netflix net subscriber additions to be 4 million, short of its Q3 guidance of 4.4 million net subscriber additions. The following recaps the foundation of our proprietary multiple linear regression forecast model: Systematically categorizing and […]
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Recall we track net subscriber adds by tracking the content available while taking into account seasonality and internet penetration rates. These were all statistically significant factors in forecasting net subscriber additions. Prior to the T-Mobile deal, we found that Q3 net subscriber additions were on pace to miss Q3 estimates. We estimated 4M vs. NTFX guide of 4.4M. Post the T-Mobile deal, we expect Q3 net subscriber additions will exceed Q3 estimates. We estimate 5.34 vs. NTFX guide of 4.4M. We forecast that 2.9M T-Mobile Family Plans will be added to NFLX from T-Mobile alone and a few hundred thousand coming […]